Notes & research
My read on the markets, the dates I’m watching, and the tools I use to keep track of it all.
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow (US30) are CFD quotes. Availability and delays vary by market.
Oil rose after Reuters reported further strikes affecting Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz area, along with delayed Gulf-Iran diplomacy. What caught my attention is the possibility that a longer disruption could keep inflation pressure elevated and complicate the Federal Reserve’s next decision, though it’s far too early to know whether this will last. For now, the headlines look like one developing geopolitical event rather than several separate signals, and calmer diplomacy or limited supply effects could quickly change the picture.
A look at the tools behind these notes. The details stay private.
The next two weeks
No matching events
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $65.0M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:21 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $309.6M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:28 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $923.6M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:30 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $317.0M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:34 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $372.2M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:20 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Census · Official schedule · Checked Sep 20
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $1931.4M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:27 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $161.4M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:23 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $219.8M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:32 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Census · Official schedule · Checked Sep 20
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $109.0M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/17/2026, 1:15:44 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $104.7M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:44 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $1145.7M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:41 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $478.7M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:37 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $104.2M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:55 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $167.3M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/19/2026, 1:15:50 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
BEA · Official schedule · Checked Sep 20
BEA · Official schedule · Checked Sep 20
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $23887.6M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $313.1M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:47 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $102.8M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:58 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $76.7M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:39 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $273.0M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:49 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $905.2M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:15:54 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $75.0M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:16:01 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
Finnhub · Provider date; timing may change · Checked Sep 20
Stock activity: $240.4M average daily traded value over 20 completed sessions, through 2026-09-18 (Yahoo Finance). Options liquidity unverified. Options checked 9/20/2026, 1:16:03 AM ET via Schwab; session snapshot, not an average.
No matching events
Inflation data and the Fed chair’s Jackson Hole message now stand between a low-volatility equity advance and a heavily leveraged crypto rebound. A major semiconductor earnings report will test whether resilient artificial-intelligence spending still supports elevated infrastructure valuations, while new Iran sanctions keep energy and inflation tail risks alive. Choppy consolidation is the likeliest outcome, with better opportunities emerging after policy, inflation, and earnings signals align.
Cooling inflation has handed risk assets a reprieve, but the relief rally is now running into a nastier mix of high long-term yields and rising oil risk from the Gulf. The key tension is whether softer economic data becomes the benign slowdown markets want or the start of a margin-and-demand problem. With volatility low and positioning leaning comfortable, the better opportunity is likely in disciplined pullbacks rather than chasing Monday strength.
Record-high equities are running into a cleaner but more dangerous test: inflation data, renewed oil stress around Hormuz, and a market already leaning risk-on after a strong tech-led rally. The opportunity is that benign inflation could extend the AI/liquidity trade, but the setup is now less forgiving—higher oil, hotter CPI, or hawkish Fed messaging would likely hit the same crowded growth and crypto areas that just bounced hardest.
Oil, rates, and AI spending are now fighting for control of sentiment, with Gulf escalation pushing inflation risk higher just as the Fed prepares to explain why cuts are still not obvious. The key tension is that the long-term AI infrastructure story remains alive, but near-term investors are demanding proof that massive spending can translate into durable cash flow. Crypto is trying to stabilize, but weak fund flows and small-token underperformance suggest liquidity is still selective rather than broadly speculative.
Relief from the weekend pause in U.S.–Iran fighting has taken immediate pressure off oil and lifted risk appetite, but it has not removed the bigger question: whether the Fed and mega-cap earnings will validate a market still priced for resilient growth. The setup is a rebound-versus-repricing week—lower energy stress can help, while any hawkish policy signal or AI spending disappointment could quickly pull leadership back into correction mode. Crypto is participating in the relief rally, but the quality split remains: large liquid assets are still getting the benefit of the doubt while speculative corners remain fragile.
Cooler inflation has taken near-term Fed hike pressure off the tape, but the relief is being offset by a much hotter geopolitical backdrop as oil pushes above $90 and U.S.–Iran escalation threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tech leadership is no longer automatic after a sharp semiconductor selloff, so AI spending commentary now has to prove the capex story rather than simply ride the narrative. The best setup is disciplined rotation: keep exposure to durable growth, but let energy security, infrastructure, and liquidity do more of the stabilizing work until earnings and oil risk settle.
Oil and geopolitics are back in the driver’s seat after renewed U.S.–Iran strikes pushed energy risk higher just as markets sit near highs with volatility unusually calm. The central tension is whether strong earnings and resilient AI demand can keep carrying risk assets through a week packed with inflation data, Fed testimony, bank results, and major semiconductor read-throughs. A cooler inflation print could extend the risk-on move, but hot core inflation or cautious chip guidance would probably expose how crowded parts of the trade have become.
Risk appetite enters July with a split personality: equity indices have recovered, but leadership is rotating away from the hottest AI trades while rates and the dollar stay firm. Oil’s slide after fresh supply news lowers the near-term inflation scare, yet a hawkish Fed backdrop and the first earnings-season signals can quickly turn that relief into valuation pressure. The best setup is selective rather than heroic—chip demand, software budget resilience, and crypto liquidity need confirmation before adding meaningful risk.
